Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium · Analysis updated 05:48 UTC
Sepahan FC vs Gol Gohar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Sepahan FC and 0.73 for Gol Gohar, a combined total of 2.09. That distribution gives Sepahan FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sepahan FC win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sepahan FC home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gol Gohar away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.8%
- 0–012.4%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–011.5%
- 0–19.0%
Recent form
Sepahan FC
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Esteghlal Khuzestan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanat Naft · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gol Gohar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Esteghlal FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tractor Sazi · 0-2 (L)
Gol Gohar
- 2026-10-19T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Esteghlal FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Muharraq · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-08T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Esteghlal Khuzestan · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Jazira · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Shams Azar Qazvin · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · Sepahan FC 2-0 Gol Gohar (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2026-01-28T12:30:00.000Z · Sepahan FC 1-1 Gol Gohar (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2025-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · Sepahan FC 1-1 Gol Gohar (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2025-05-02T16:00:00.000Z · Sepahan FC 1-2 Gol Gohar (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2024-12-21T12:45:00.000Z · Sepahan FC 1-1 Gol Gohar (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2024-06-15T16:15:00.000Z · Sepahan FC 2-1 Gol Gohar (Hazfi Cup)
- 2024-03-17T15:15:00.000Z · Sepahan FC 2-0 Gol Gohar (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2023-12-28T11:30:00.000Z · Sepahan FC 1-3 Gol Gohar (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2023-02-01T11:30:00.000Z · Sepahan FC 4-1 Gol Gohar (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2022-08-26T17:00:00.000Z · Sepahan FC 2-2 Gol Gohar (Persian Gulf Pro League)
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persepolis FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 20 |
| 2 | Tractor Sazi | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Esteghlal FC | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | Sepahan FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Foolad FC | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Aluminium Arak | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Kheybar Khorramabad | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Gol Gohar | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Fajr Sepasi | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Chadormalu SC | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 | Nassaji Mazandaran | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Paykan | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Malavan | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | ZOB Ahan | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Shams Azar Qazvin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Sanat Naft | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 18 | Mes Shahr-e Babak | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sepahan FC win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.