· Analysis updated 03:53 UTC
Sepsi II vs ARO Muscelul Câmpulung Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.91 expected goals for Sepsi II and 1.82 for ARO Muscelul Câmpulung, a combined total of 3.73. That distribution gives Sepsi II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.6% probability
Expected goals
1.91 – 1.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sepsi II home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
ARO Muscelul Câmpulung away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sepsi II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 22% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.91 goals for Sepsi II and 1.82 for ARO Muscelul Câmpulung, a combined 3.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.3%
- 2–18.0%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.1%
Recent form
Sepsi II
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpic Zărneşti · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Baicoi · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Sibiu · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kids Tâmpa Braşov · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Săcele · 3-0 (W)
ARO Muscelul Câmpulung
- 2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Sibiu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kids Tâmpa Braşov · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Săcele · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tricolorul Breaza · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Carpati Covasna · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corona Braşov | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 26 |
| 2 | ACS Mediaş 2022 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Baicoi | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 22 |
| 4 | Olimpic Zărneşti | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 19 |
| 5 | Inter Sibiu | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 18 |
| 6 | Sepsi II | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Săcele | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | ARO Muscelul Câmpulung | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Valenii de Munte | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Tricolorul Breaza | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 4 |
| 11 | Kids Tâmpa Braşov | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -15 | 3 |
| 12 | Carpati Covasna | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -30 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.