Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs CFR 1907 Cluj Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and 1.41 for CFR 1907 Cluj, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.44 – 1.41

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CFR 1907 Cluj away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe win38%

Draw25%

CFR 1907 Cluj win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.8%
2–18.4%
1–08.3%
1–28.3%
0–18.2%

Recent form

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloria Bistriţa · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Uta Arad · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Botosani · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 1-3 (L)

CFR 1907 Cluj

2026-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arges Pitesti · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-08T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitatea Cluj · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM Satu Mare · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Botosani · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2025-02-28T18:00:00.000Z · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1-1 CFR 1907 Cluj (Liga I)
2024-10-25T18:00:00.000Z · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3-3 CFR 1907 Cluj (Liga I)
2024-04-28T18:00:00.000Z · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1-2 CFR 1907 Cluj (Liga I)
2024-03-29T18:30:00.000Z · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1-1 CFR 1907 Cluj (Liga I)
2023-12-17T19:00:00.000Z · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2-1 CFR 1907 Cluj (Liga I)
2023-10-05T17:00:00.000Z · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0-3 CFR 1907 Cluj (Liga I)
2023-05-20T17:30:00.000Z · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1-2 CFR 1907 Cluj (Liga I)
2023-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3-0 CFR 1907 Cluj (Cupa României)
2023-04-15T16:00:00.000Z · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1-2 CFR 1907 Cluj (Liga I)
2023-03-06T18:30:00.000Z · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2-2 CFR 1907 Cluj (Liga I)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.