Stadionul Municipal · Referee Viorel Nicusor Flueran · Analysis updated 21:58 UTC
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Dinamo Bucuresti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and 1.42 for Dinamo Bucuresti, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Dinamo Bucuresti the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dinamo Bucuresti win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Bucuresti away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.9%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–29.2%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–29.0%
Recent form
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- 2026-10-17T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Bucuresti · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloria Bistriţa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Uta Arad · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 3-1 (W)
Dinamo Bucuresti
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Farul Constanta · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Csikszereda · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs FCSB · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Lieşti · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Corvinul Hunedoara · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2024-11-30T18:30:00.000Z · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1-1 Dinamo Bucuresti (Liga I)
- 2024-07-27T19:00:00.000Z · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1-1 Dinamo Bucuresti (Liga I)
- 2023-12-04T18:00:00.000Z · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2-1 Dinamo Bucuresti (Liga I)
- 2023-07-31T18:30:00.000Z · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3-0 Dinamo Bucuresti (Liga I)
- 2022-11-08T19:00:00.000Z · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3-2 Dinamo Bucuresti (Cupa României)
- 2022-03-20T14:00:00.000Z · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0-0 Dinamo Bucuresti (Liga I)
- 2022-03-01T15:30:00.000Z · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3-1 Dinamo Bucuresti (Liga I)
- 2021-10-31T15:30:00.000Z · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 4-1 Dinamo Bucuresti (Liga I)
- 2021-02-13T19:00:00.000Z · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0-0 Dinamo Bucuresti (Liga I)
- 2020-10-24T18:45:00.000Z · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2-0 Dinamo Bucuresti (Liga I)
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 29 |
| 2 | Rapid | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 27 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 26 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 23 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | FCSB | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 21 |
| 7 | Farul Constanta | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Uta Arad | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 9 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | FC Botosani | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 12 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -16 | 8 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -17 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dinamo Bucuresti win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.