Stadionul Sepsi · Referee Marcel Birsan, Romania · Analysis updated 15:34 UTC
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Farul Constanta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and 1.19 for Farul Constanta, a combined total of 2.16. That distribution gives Farul Constanta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.1% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Farul Constanta away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Farul Constanta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 30% / 29% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and 1.19 for Farul Constanta, a combined 2.16 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.7%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.5%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–28.2%
Recent form
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloria Bistriţa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Uta Arad · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Botosani · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 1-3 (L)
Farul Constanta
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bucuresti · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Uta Arad · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Botosani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 26 |
| 2 | Rapid | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Farul Constanta | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | FCSB | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 | FC Botosani | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 12 | Uta Arad | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -18 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.