Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs FCSB Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and 1.07 for FCSB, a combined total of 2.12. That distribution gives FCSB the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.07

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FCSB away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FCSB to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 35% / 30% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and 1.07 for FCSB, a combined 2.12 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe win35%

Draw30%

FCSB win36%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–113.5%
0–112.8%
1–012.6%
0–012.0%
1–27.2%

Recent form

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloria Bistriţa · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Uta Arad · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Botosani · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 1-3 (L)

FCSB

2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Oţelul · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Craiova · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bucuresti · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Arges Pitesti · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga I table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dinamo Bucuresti	12	9	2	1	20	29
2	Rapid	12	8	3	1	11	27
3	Universitatea Craiova	12	8	2	2	18	26
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	12	6	2	4	-1	20
5	Universitatea Cluj	12	6	1	5	2	19
6	FCSB	12	5	3	4	-2	18
7	Farul Constanta	12	4	5	3	0	17
8	Corvinul Hunedoara	12	4	4	4	1	16
9	CFR 1907 Cluj	12	5	1	6	-1	16
10	Uta Arad	12	4	3	5	-2	15
11	FC Botosani	12	3	5	4	2	14
12	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	12	3	5	4	-5	14
13	Arges Pitesti	12	3	3	6	-5	12
14	Oţelul	12	2	5	5	-5	11
15	FC Voluntari	12	2	2	8	-15	8
16	Csikszereda	12	0	2	10	-18	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.