Septemvri Dragoevo vs Aksakovo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.24 expected goals for Septemvri Dragoevo and 2.08 for Aksakovo, a combined total of 4.32. That distribution gives Septemvri Dragoevo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.24 – 2.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Septemvri Dragoevo home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Aksakovo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Septemvri Dragoevo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 20% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.24 goals for Septemvri Dragoevo and 2.08 for Aksakovo, a combined 4.32 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Septemvri Dragoevo win43%

Draw20%

Aksakovo win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals80%

Over 3.5 goals63%

Both teams to score78%

Correct score

2–27.2%
2–16.9%
1–26.4%
1–16.2%
3–25.4%

Recent form

Septemvri Dragoevo

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Devnya 2005 · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Tervel · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Benkovski Isperih · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Volov Shumen · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Riltzi · 4-2 (W)

Aksakovo

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Svetkavitsa 14 · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Olympic Varna · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Cherno more II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernomorets Balchik · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Chernolomets 1919 · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · Septemvri Dragoevo 4-2 Aksakovo (Third League - Northeast)

Third League - Northeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ludogorets III	10	8	1	1	20	25
2	Volov Shumen	10	7	1	2	19	22
3	Chernomorets Balchik	9	6	2	1	8	20
4	Svetkavitsa 14	10	6	1	3	6	19
5	Chernolomets 1919	10	5	3	2	13	18
6	Septemvri Tervel	8	4	3	1	5	15
7	Benkovski Isperih	8	4	2	2	5	14
8	Botev Novi Pazar	8	3	3	2	4	12
9	Cherno more II	9	3	2	4	3	11
10	Septemvri Dragoevo	10	3	2	5	-8	11
11	Devnya 2005	9	3	1	5	-8	10
12	Riltzi	9	3	1	5	-10	10
13	Olympic Varna	9	3	0	6	-8	9
14	Aksakovo	7	2	1	4	-5	7
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	2	1	7	-11	7
16	Fratria II	9	2	1	6	-17	7
17	Dorostol	9	0	1	8	-16	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.