· Analysis updated 16:38 UTC
Septemvri Dragoevo vs Devnya 2005 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.99 expected goals for Septemvri Dragoevo and 1.27 for Devnya 2005, a combined total of 3.26. That distribution gives Septemvri Dragoevo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Septemvri Dragoevo win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
1.99 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Septemvri Dragoevo home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Septemvri Dragoevo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 22% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.99 goals for Septemvri Dragoevo and 1.27 for Devnya 2005, a combined 3.26 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–07.6%
- 2–07.6%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
Septemvri Dragoevo
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Devnya 2005 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Tervel · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Benkovski Isperih · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Volov Shumen · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Riltzi · 4-2 (W)
Devnya 2005
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ustrem Donchevo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Fratria II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dorostol · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Tervel · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Benkovski Isperih · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets III | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 28 |
| 2 | Volov Shumen | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 23 |
| 3 | Chernomorets Balchik | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Chernolomets 1919 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 21 |
| 5 | Svetkavitsa 14 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 19 |
| 6 | Botev Novi Pazar | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Septemvri Tervel | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Cherno more II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 |
| 9 | Benkovski Isperih | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Olympic Varna | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Devnya 2005 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 13 | Riltzi | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 10 |
| 14 | Aksakovo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Ustrem Donchevo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 16 | Fratria II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 7 |
| 17 | Dorostol | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -19 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Septemvri Dragoevo win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.