· Analysis updated 06:11 UTC
Septemvri Dragoevo vs Fratria II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.65 expected goals for Septemvri Dragoevo and 1.33 for Fratria II, a combined total of 4.98. That distribution gives Septemvri Dragoevo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Septemvri Dragoevo win
79.4% probability
Expected goals
3.65 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Septemvri Dragoevo home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Fratria II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Septemvri Dragoevo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 11% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.65 goals for Septemvri Dragoevo and 1.33 for Fratria II, a combined 4.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.4%
- 4–16.8%
- 2–16.1%
- 3–05.6%
- 4–05.1%
Recent form
Septemvri Dragoevo
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Devnya 2005 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Tervel · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Benkovski Isperih · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Volov Shumen · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Riltzi · 4-2 (W)
Fratria II
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ustrem Donchevo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dorostol · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Devnya 2005 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Tervel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Benkovski Isperih · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets III | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 28 |
| 2 | Volov Shumen | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 23 |
| 3 | Chernomorets Balchik | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Chernolomets 1919 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 21 |
| 5 | Svetkavitsa 14 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 19 |
| 6 | Botev Novi Pazar | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Septemvri Tervel | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Cherno more II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 |
| 9 | Benkovski Isperih | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Olympic Varna | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Devnya 2005 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 13 | Riltzi | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 10 |
| 14 | Aksakovo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Ustrem Donchevo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 16 | Fratria II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 7 |
| 17 | Dorostol | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -19 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Septemvri Dragoevo win, at 79.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.