National Stadium Vasil Levski · Analysis updated 15:47 UTC
Septemvri Simitli vs Oborishte Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Septemvri Simitli and 2.18 for Oborishte, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Oborishte the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Oborishte win
63.5% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 2.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Septemvri Simitli home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oborishte to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 17% / 20% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Septemvri Simitli and 2.18 for Oborishte, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–19.1%
- 0–18.9%
- 1–37.2%
Recent form
Septemvri Simitli
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Strumska Slava · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oborishte · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bansko · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Minyor Pernik · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Pirin Razlog · 1-1 (D)
Oborishte
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Sofia II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyustendil · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Yantra 2019 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Simitli · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Strumska Slava · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-21T12:00:00.000Z · Septemvri Simitli 1-2 Oborishte (Third League - Southwest)
- 2025-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · Septemvri Simitli 1-1 Oborishte (Third League - Southwest)
- 2025-02-26T12:00:00.000Z · Septemvri Simitli 0-0 Oborishte (Third League - Southwest)
- 2024-08-03T15:00:00.000Z · Septemvri Simitli 0-1 Oborishte (Third League - Southwest)
- 2024-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · Septemvri Simitli 1-1 Oborishte (Third League - Southwest)
- 2023-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · Septemvri Simitli 2-2 Oborishte (Third League - Southwest)
- 2022-11-12T12:00:00.000Z · Septemvri Simitli 1-0 Oborishte (Third League - Southwest)
- 2022-08-27T15:00:00.000Z · Septemvri Simitli 0-1 Oborishte (Third League - Southwest)
- 2019-11-30T12:00:00.000Z · Septemvri Simitli 1-0 Oborishte (Third League - Southwest)
Third League - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Minyor Pernik | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 29 |
| 2 | Oborishte | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Bansko | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Strumska Slava | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 5 | Septemvri Sofia II | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Balkan Botevgrad | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 7 | Kostinbrod | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Slivnishki geroy | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | CSKA Sofia III | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Botev Ihtiman | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Septemvri Simitli | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 | Chavdar Etropole | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 13 |
| 14 | Levski Sofia II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 15 | Belasitsa | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 11 |
| 16 | Kyustendil | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | Pirin Razlog | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oborishte win, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.