Dragalevtsi Stadium · Referee Radoslav Gidzhenov, Bulgaria · Analysis updated 15:31 UTC
Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Septemvri Sofia and 2.22 for CSKA 1948, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives CSKA 1948 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CSKA 1948 win
66.2% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 2.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Septemvri Sofia home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
CSKA 1948 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.3%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–19.3%
- 1–18.8%
- 0–37.7%
Recent form
Septemvri Sofia
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Botev Plovdiv · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Ludogorets · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Botev Vratsa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Sofia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA 1948 · 1-0 (W)
CSKA 1948
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Sofia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunav Ruse · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Levski Sofia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Sofia · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · Septemvri Sofia 1-0 CSKA 1948 (First League)
- 2025-12-03T11:00:00.000Z · Septemvri Sofia 1-4 CSKA 1948 (First League)
- 2025-08-01T18:15:00.000Z · Septemvri Sofia 1-2 CSKA 1948 (First League)
- 2025-05-11T17:30:00.000Z · Septemvri Sofia 0-2 CSKA 1948 (First League)
- 2024-12-03T10:30:00.000Z · Septemvri Sofia 0-2 CSKA 1948 (First League)
- 2024-09-25T14:30:00.000Z · Septemvri Sofia 1-1 CSKA 1948 (First League)
- 2023-11-17T10:00:00.000Z · Septemvri Sofia 1-2 CSKA 1948 (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-04-14T12:45:00.000Z · Septemvri Sofia 1-3 CSKA 1948 (First League)
- 2022-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · Septemvri Sofia 0-1 CSKA 1948 (First League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CSKA 1948 win, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.