Dragalevtsi Stadium · Referee Kristiyan Kolev, Bulgaria · Analysis updated 16:01 UTC
Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Septemvri Sofia and 1.60 for CSKA Sofia, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives CSKA Sofia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CSKA Sofia win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Septemvri Sofia home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
CSKA Sofia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.8%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Septemvri Sofia
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Botev Plovdiv · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Ludogorets · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Botev Vratsa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Sofia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA 1948 · 1-0 (W)
CSKA Sofia
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA 1948 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Arda Kardzhali · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T18:15:00.000Z · Septemvri Sofia 0-3 CSKA Sofia (First League)
- 2026-02-28T15:30:00.000Z · Septemvri Sofia 2-0 CSKA Sofia (First League)
- 2025-10-11T08:00:00.000Z · Septemvri Sofia 0-4 CSKA Sofia (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-09-13T17:15:00.000Z · Septemvri Sofia 1-3 CSKA Sofia (First League)
- 2025-03-29T15:15:00.000Z · Septemvri Sofia 0-1 CSKA Sofia (First League)
- 2024-10-05T14:30:00.000Z · Septemvri Sofia 1-0 CSKA Sofia (First League)
- 2024-02-10T10:30:00.000Z · Septemvri Sofia 0-1 CSKA Sofia (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-02-26T15:15:00.000Z · Septemvri Sofia 0-1 CSKA Sofia (First League)
- 2022-12-01T10:00:00.000Z · Septemvri Sofia 1-2 CSKA Sofia (Cup)
- 2022-09-25T13:00:00.000Z · Septemvri Sofia 0-2 CSKA Sofia (Friendlies Clubs)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CSKA Sofia win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.