Dragalevtsi Stadium, · Referee Todor Kirov · Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Septemvri Sofia and 1.55 for Dunav Ruse, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Dunav Ruse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.4% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Septemvri Sofia home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dunav Ruse away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dunav Ruse to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 36% / 24% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Septemvri Sofia and 1.55 for Dunav Ruse, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–18.1%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–07.2%
Recent form
Septemvri Sofia
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Botev Plovdiv · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Ludogorets · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Botev Vratsa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Sofia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA 1948 · 1-0 (W)
Dunav Ruse
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cherno More Varna · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Botev Vratsa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA 1948 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Sofia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 28 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 27 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 26 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 22 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 17 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Cherno More Varna | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.