· Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Septemvri Sofia and 1.72 for Lokomotiv Sofia, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Lokomotiv Sofia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lokomotiv Sofia win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Septemvri Sofia home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lokomotiv Sofia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lokomotiv Sofia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 28% / 24% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Septemvri Sofia and 1.72 for Lokomotiv Sofia, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–18.6%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–17.0%
Recent form
Septemvri Sofia
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Botev Plovdiv · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Ludogorets · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Botev Vratsa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Sofia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA 1948 · 1-0 (W)
Lokomotiv Sofia
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnicki NIS · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Varna · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cherno More Varna · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lokomotiv Sofia win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.