· Analysis updated 16:50 UTC
Septemvri Tervel vs Devnya 2005 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Septemvri Tervel and 0.65 for Devnya 2005, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Septemvri Tervel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Septemvri Tervel win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Septemvri Tervel home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Septemvri Tervel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 27% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Septemvri Tervel and 0.65 for Devnya 2005, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 34% and both teams to score at 36%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.9%
- 2–012.7%
- 0–012.6%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–18.3%
Recent form
Septemvri Tervel
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Dragoevo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ustrem Donchevo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fratria II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Devnya 2005 · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Volov Shumen · 1-1 (D)
Devnya 2005
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ustrem Donchevo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Fratria II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dorostol · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Tervel · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Benkovski Isperih · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · Septemvri Tervel 5-2 Devnya 2005 (Third League - Northeast)
Third League - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets III | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 2 | Chernolomets 1919 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 17 |
| 3 | Chernomorets Balchik | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Volov Shumen | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 16 |
| 5 | Svetkavitsa 14 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Benkovski Isperih | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Cherno more II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Septemvri Tervel | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 9 | Devnya 2005 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Riltzi | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 10 |
| 11 | Botev Novi Pazar | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | Olympic Varna | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Aksakovo | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Fratria II | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | Ustrem Donchevo | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Dorostol | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Septemvri Tervel win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.