· Analysis updated 10:34 UTC
Serra Macaense vs 7 de Abril Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Serra Macaense and 1.12 for 7 de Abril, a combined total of 3.27. That distribution gives Serra Macaense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Serra Macaense win
60.8% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Serra Macaense home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
7 de Abril away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Serra Macaense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 20% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Serra Macaense and 1.12 for 7 de Abril, a combined 3.27 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.2%
- 2–08.8%
- 1–08.1%
- 3–17.0%
Recent form
Serra Macaense
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio de Janeiro · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Búzios · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Paduano · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:45:00.000Z · A vs 7 de Abril · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Friburguense · 0-1 (L)
7 de Abril
- 2026-08-30T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Santa Cruz RJ · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-11-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Macaé · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-11-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio de Janeiro · 6-2 (W)
- 2025-11-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Goytacaz · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-10-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz RJ · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca B2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Friburguense | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 23 |
| 2 | Santa Cruz RJ | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 3 | Cardoso Moreira | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Serra Macaense | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Paduano | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 6 | SE Belford Roxo | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 7 | Campos AA | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | 7 de Abril | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 9 | Rio de Janeiro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 10 | Barra Mansa | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 11 | Búzios | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -17 | 3 |
| 12 | Paraty | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -23 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Serra Macaense win, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.