· Analysis updated 21:55 UTC
Serra Macaense vs Paraty Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.48 expected goals for Serra Macaense and 0.85 for Paraty, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Serra Macaense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Serra Macaense win
72.9% probability
Expected goals
2.48 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Serra Macaense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 16% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.48 goals for Serra Macaense and 0.85 for Paraty, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 52%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 73% with high confidence, from a data-quality score of 70/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.0%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–09.1%
- 1–08.9%
- 3–17.7%
Recent form
Serra Macaense
Paraty
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Serra Macaense win, at 72.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.