· Analysis updated 10:17 UTC
Serra Talhada vs Porto Vitória Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.86 expected goals for Serra Talhada and 1.70 for Porto Vitória, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Porto Vitória the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Porto Vitória win
57.3% probability
Expected goals
0.86 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Serra Talhada home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Porto Vitória away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Porto Vitória to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 19% / 24% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.86 goals for Serra Talhada and 1.70 for Porto Vitória, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.2%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–211.2%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Serra Talhada
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rio Branco ES · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-30T21:45:00.000Z · H vs Porto Vitória · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rio Branco-VN · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-20T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória ES · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-09T21:45:00.000Z · H vs Vilavelhense · 2-3 (L)
Porto Vitória
- 2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Branco-VN · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-06-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rio Branco-VN · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Brasil ES · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-30T21:45:00.000Z · A vs Serra Talhada · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-22T21:45:00.000Z · H vs Audax São Mateus · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Espírito Santo table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto Vitória | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Vitória ES | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Vilavelhense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Rio Branco-VN | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Rio Branco ES | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Sport Brasil ES | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 6 |
| 7 | Serra Talhada | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 4 |
| 8 | Audax São Mateus | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Porto Vitória win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.