· Analysis updated 15:49 UTC
Serrano RJ vs Campo Grande Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for Serrano RJ and 0.77 for Campo Grande, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Serrano RJ the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Serrano RJ win
62.3% probability
Expected goals
1.82 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Serrano RJ home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Campo Grande away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Serrano RJ to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 22% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.82 goals for Serrano RJ and 0.77 for Campo Grande, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.7%
- 2–012.4%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.5%
Recent form
Serrano RJ
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Macaé · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Artsul · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Campo Grande · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Audax Rio · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Goytacaz · 0-0 (D)
Campo Grande
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Duque de Caxias · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nova Cidade · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrópolis · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Serrano RJ · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Macaé · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niteroiense | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Duque de Caxias | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Serrano RJ | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Goytacaz | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Petrópolis | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Artsul | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Campo Grande | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 8 | Macaé | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Nova Cidade | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | São Cristóvão RJ | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Audax Rio | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
| 12 | Carapebus | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Serrano RJ win, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.