· Analysis updated 00:18 UTC
Serrano RJ vs São Cristóvão RJ Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Serrano RJ and 0.63 for São Cristóvão RJ, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Serrano RJ the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Serrano RJ win
51.7% probability
Expected goals
1.26 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Serrano RJ home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Serrano RJ to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 30% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for Serrano RJ and 0.63 for São Cristóvão RJ, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 30% and both teams to score at 34%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.9%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–012.0%
- 0–19.5%
Recent form
Serrano RJ
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Macaé · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Artsul · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Campo Grande · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Audax Rio · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Goytacaz · 0-0 (D)
São Cristóvão RJ
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niteroiense | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Duque de Caxias | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Serrano RJ | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Goytacaz | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Petrópolis | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Artsul | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Campo Grande | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 8 | Macaé | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Nova Cidade | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | São Cristóvão RJ | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Audax Rio | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
| 12 | Carapebus | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Serrano RJ win, at 51.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.