Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos · Referee João Soares · Analysis updated 15:56 UTC
Sertanense vs Alcains Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Sertanense and 0.80 for Alcains, a combined total of 1.73. That distribution gives Sertanense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.3% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sertanense home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Alcains away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–017.8%
- 1–016.5%
- 0–114.3%
- 1–113.2%
- 2–07.6%
Recent form
Sertanense
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Os Marialvas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs O Elvas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Malveira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcains · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mortágua · 1-3 (L)
Alcains
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sertanense · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-04-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Alverca II · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-04-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sertanense · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-03-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs União de Coimbra · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-03-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Marinhense · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · Sertanense 0-1 Alcains (Taça de Portugal)
- 2025-04-06T15:00:00.000Z · Sertanense 3-1 Alcains (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
- 2024-12-15T15:00:00.000Z · Sertanense 0-2 Alcains (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
- 2023-04-16T15:00:00.000Z · Sertanense 1-3 Alcains (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
- 2023-01-08T15:00:00.000Z · Sertanense 3-0 Alcains (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
- 2022-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · Sertanense 1-0 Alcains (Taça de Portugal)
- 2021-02-28T15:00:00.000Z · Sertanense 2-0 Alcains (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E)
- 2020-11-29T11:00:00.000Z · Sertanense 0-0 Alcains (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E)
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oliveira Hospital | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | UD da Serra | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Os Marialvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Mortágua | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | O Elvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Naval 1893 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | AD Nogueirense | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Atlético Malveira | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Fátima | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | FC Alverca II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 13 | Nazarenos | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Fazendense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.