· Analysis updated 20:49 UTC
Sertãozinho U20 vs Ferroviária U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.89 expected goals for Sertãozinho U20 and 1.50 for Ferroviária U20, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Ferroviária U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ferroviária U20 win
51.6% probability
Expected goals
0.89 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sertãozinho U20 home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ferroviária U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 22% / 26% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.89 goals for Sertãozinho U20 and 1.50 for Ferroviária U20, a combined 2.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 46%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.7%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–210.3%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–09.1%
Recent form
Sertãozinho U20
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Santo André U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Santo André U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferroviária U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ponte Preta U20 · 3-1 (W)
Ferroviária U20
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ferroviária U20 win, at 51.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.