· Analysis updated 20:26 UTC
Sertãozinho U20 vs Itapirense U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Sertãozinho U20 and 1.28 for Itapirense U20, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Itapirense U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.7% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sertãozinho U20 home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Itapirense U20 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Itapirense U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 35% / 27% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Sertãozinho U20 and 1.28 for Itapirense U20, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–08.2%
- 1–28.2%
Recent form
Sertãozinho U20
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Santo André U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Santo André U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferroviária U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ponte Preta U20 · 3-1 (W)
Itapirense U20
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs União Suzano U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-14T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Santos U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs São Bento U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Corinthians U20 · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.