· Analysis updated 01:52 UTC
Sertãozinho U20 vs Santo André U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Sertãozinho U20 and 0.95 for Santo André U20, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives Sertãozinho U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sertãozinho U20 home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Santo André U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sertãozinho U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 31% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Sertãozinho U20 and 0.95 for Santo André U20, a combined 1.98 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 0–013.8%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.1%
- 2–07.3%
Recent form
Sertãozinho U20
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Santo André U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Santo André U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferroviária U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ponte Preta U20 · 3-1 (W)
Santo André U20
- 2026-10-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos U20 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventus U20 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventus U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sertãozinho U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sertãozinho U20 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.