Stade de la Fontenette · Analysis updated 08:02 UTC
Servette Chênois W vs Rapperswil Jona W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.93 expected goals for Servette Chênois W and 1.22 for Rapperswil Jona W, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Servette Chênois W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Servette Chênois W win
72.2% probability
Expected goals
2.93 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Servette Chênois W home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Servette Chênois W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 15% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.93 goals for Servette Chênois W and 1.22 for Rapperswil Jona W, a combined 4.15 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 66%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–06.8%
- 3–06.6%
- 4–15.9%
Recent form
Servette Chênois W
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Basel W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Praha W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Boys W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aarau W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe W · 4-0 (W)
Rapperswil Jona W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
AXA Women’s Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Servette Chênois W | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Zürich W | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Young Boys W | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Grasshopper W | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 17 |
| 5 | Basel W | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Luzern W | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Rapperswil Jona W | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 8 | Yverdon W | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | St. Gallen W | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 4 |
| 10 | Aarau W | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -21 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Servette Chênois W win, at 72.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.