Servette Chênois W vs Sparta Praha W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for Servette Chênois W and 2.00 for Sparta Praha W, a combined total of 4.75. That distribution gives Servette Chênois W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Servette Chênois W win

54.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.75 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Servette Chênois W home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sparta Praha W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Servette Chênois W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 18% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for Servette Chênois W and 2.00 for Sparta Praha W, a combined 4.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Servette Chênois W win54%

Draw18%

Sparta Praha W win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals85%

Over 3.5 goals70%

Both teams to score81%

Correct score

2–16.5%
2–26.5%
3–16.0%
3–26.0%
1–14.8%

Recent form

Servette Chênois W

2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Luzern W · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Gallen W · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-01T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Køge W · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-23T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Lyon W · 0-8 (L)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Zürich W · 0-0 (D)

Sparta Praha W

2026-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Farul Constanţa W · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Horní Heršpice W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Farul Constanţa W · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava W · 8-0 (W)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Plzeň W · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-02T16:45:00.000Z · Servette Chênois W 3-0 Sparta Praha W (UEFA Champions League Women)
2026-08-26T16:30:00.000Z · Servette Chênois W 2-3 Sparta Praha W (UEFA Champions League Women)

UEFA Champions League Women table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona W	2	2	0	0	9	6
2	Lyon W	2	1	1	0	8	4
3	Paris Saint Germain W	2	1	1	0	5	4
4	Bayern Munich W	2	1	1	0	3	4
5	Arsenal W	2	1	1	0	1	4
6	Inter Milano W	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Chelsea W	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Køge W	2	1	0	1	3	3
9	Juventus W	2	1	0	1	2	3
10	SL Benfica W	2	1	0	1	-2	3
11	Manchester City W	2	0	2	0	0	2
12	Real Madrid W	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	Austria Wien W	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Paris FC W	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	OH Leuven W	2	0	1	1	-5	1
16	Roma W	2	0	1	1	-6	1
17	Häcken W	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	Servette Chênois W	2	0	0	2	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Servette Chênois W win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.