Estadio Las Llanas · Analysis updated 11:02 UTC
Sestao River vs Arosa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Sestao River and 0.74 for Arosa, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Sestao River the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sestao River win
62.7% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sestao River home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Arosa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sestao River to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 22% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Sestao River and 0.74 for Arosa, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 2–012.8%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.9%
Recent form
Sestao River
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gernika · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Terrassa · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Astorga · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Compostela · 0-2 (L)
Arosa
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bergantiños · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ourense CF · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Alavés II · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Basconia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gernika · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sestao River | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Deportivo Alavés II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Bergantiños | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Eibar II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Compostela | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Amorebieta | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Portugalete | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Gernika | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 9 | Ourense CF | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 10 | Real Oviedo II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 | Basconia | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Coruxo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Atlético Astorga | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Arosa | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Llanera | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Marino de Luanco | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Racing Santander II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sestao River win, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.