· Analysis updated 15:53 UTC
Sestao River vs Athletic Club II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Sestao River and 1.18 for Athletic Club II, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Sestao River the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sestao River win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sestao River home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Athletic Club II away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.0%
- 0–17.1%
Recent form
Sestao River
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gernika · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Terrassa · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Astorga · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Compostela · 0-2 (L)
Athletic Club II
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs CD Coria · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Unión · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Extremadura 1924 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Arenas Getxo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Coruña II · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · Sestao River 0-1 Athletic Club II (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-01-25T17:00:00.000Z · Sestao River 0-2 Athletic Club II (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2024-10-20T13:30:00.000Z · Sestao River 0-1 Athletic Club II (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2023-08-12T09:30:00.000Z · Sestao River 4-2 Athletic Club II (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-08-10T17:30:00.000Z · Sestao River 2-0 Athletic Club II (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sestao River win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.