Sestao River vs Espanyol Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Sestao River and 1.10 for Espanyol, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives Sestao River the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Sestao River win

50.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sestao River home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Espanyol away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sestao River to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 24% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Sestao River and 1.10 for Espanyol, a combined 2.77 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sestao River win51%

Draw24%

Espanyol win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–111.5%
1–010.4%
2–19.6%
2–08.7%
0–16.9%

Recent form

Sestao River

2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gernika · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Terrassa · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Astorga · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Compostela · 0-2 (L)

Espanyol

2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaga · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Elche · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Vallecano · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Copa del Rey table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pinatar	2	2	0	0	11	6
2	Prat	2	2	0	0	9	6
3	Anaitasuna	2	2	0	0	8	6
4	Lebrijana	2	2	0	0	6	6
5	Atletico Calatayud	2	2	0	0	3	6
6	Alcazar	2	2	0	0	2	6
7	Hortaleza	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Ribadesella CF	2	1	1	0	1	4
9	Auriense	2	1	0	1	1	3
10	CD San Jose	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Maracena	2	0	2	0	0	2
12	Tavernes	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	Güímar	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Noja	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Talayuela	2	0	0	2	-2	0
16	Baztán	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Ceuta 6 de Junio	2	0	0	2	-6	0
18	Tedeón	2	0	0	2	-8	0
19	San Rafael	2	0	0	2	-9	0
20	Atlético Melilla	2	0	0	2	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sestao River win, at 50.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.