Sestao River vs Utebo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Sestao River and 1.25 for Utebo, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Utebo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sestao River home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Utebo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Utebo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 35% / 27% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Sestao River and 1.25 for Utebo, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Sestao River win35%

Draw27%

Utebo win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.9%
0–110.8%
1–010.4%
0–08.6%
1–28.1%

Recent form

Sestao River

2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gernika · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Terrassa · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Astorga · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Compostela · 0-2 (L)

Utebo

2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Barbastro · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Reddis · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Olot · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs SD Logroñés · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Peña Sport · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · Sestao River 1-0 Utebo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 2)
2025-12-07T16:00:00.000Z · Sestao River 0-0 Utebo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 2)
2023-01-28T17:30:00.000Z · Sestao River 1-0 Utebo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 2)
2022-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · Sestao River 1-0 Utebo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 2)

Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona B	7	6	1	0	13	19
2	Osasuna II	7	4	2	1	6	14
3	Espanyol II	6	4	1	1	11	13
4	Ebro	7	4	1	2	4	13
5	Olot	7	3	3	1	4	12
6	Manresa	7	3	2	2	6	11
7	Terrassa	6	3	2	1	4	11
8	Girona II	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Reddis	7	3	1	3	-2	10
10	Tudelano	7	2	2	3	-1	8
11	Peña Sport	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	UD Logroñés II	7	2	2	3	-4	8
13	Barbastro	7	1	4	2	-1	7
14	Utebo	7	1	4	2	-1	7
15	Náxara	6	1	2	3	-6	5
16	Calamocha	7	1	1	5	-12	4
17	SD Logroñés	7	0	3	4	-8	3
18	Arnedo	7	0	2	5	-13	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.