Giuseppe Sivori · Analysis updated 05:45 UTC
Sestri Levante vs Pistoiese Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Sestri Levante and 1.56 for Pistoiese, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Pistoiese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pistoiese win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sestri Levante home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pistoiese away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pistoiese to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 29% / 25% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Sestri Levante and 1.56 for Pistoiese, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–27.7%
- 1–07.6%
Recent form
Sestri Levante
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sampdoria U20 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Genoa U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanremese · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Celle Varazze · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Asti · 1-2 (L)
Pistoiese
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Correggese · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sestri Levante · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs USD Casatese · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sant'Angelo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Varesina · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pistoiese win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.