· Analysis updated 12:05 UTC
Sesvete vs Koprivnica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Sesvete and 1.30 for Koprivnica, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Sesvete the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sesvete win
53.7% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sesvete home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Koprivnica away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sesvete to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 22% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Sesvete and 1.30 for Koprivnica, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.4%
- 2–07.4%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
Sesvete
- 2026-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Jadran LP · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Croatia Zmijavci · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs HNK Cibalia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Segesta Sisak · 2-0 (W)
Koprivnica
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grobničan Čavle · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Križevci · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudes · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Trnje · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavonija Požega · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sesvete win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.