Sete de Setembro vs América PE Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Sete de Setembro and 1.41 for América PE, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Sete de Setembro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Sete de Setembro win

47.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.81 – 1.41

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sete de Setembro home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
América PE away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sete de Setembro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 23% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Sete de Setembro and 1.41 for América PE, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sete de Setembro win47%

Draw23%

América PE win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.2%
2–19.2%
1–07.2%
1–27.2%
2–06.5%

Recent form

Sete de Setembro

2026-05-31T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Zumbi · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Zumbi · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Miguelense · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Miguelense · 3-0 (W)
2026-05-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sao Domingos AL · 3-0 (W)

América PE

2025-11-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Acadêmica Vitória · 1-1 (D)
2025-10-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Caruaru City · 2-1 (W)
2025-10-12T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Ipojuca · 4-2 (W)
2025-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Centro Limoeirense · 5-0 (W)
2025-10-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Belo Jardim · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Pernambucano - 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Salgueiro	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ypiranga PE	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atlético PE	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	América PE	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Petrolina	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Porto	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Centro Limoeirense	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Vera Cruz	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Ferroviario do Cabo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Belo Jardim	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Jaguaré	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Íbis	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Afogados	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Pesqueira	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Aguia FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Sete de Setembro	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	1º de Maio	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Cha Grande	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Serrano PE	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Ipojuca	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Facilnet	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Central SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Santa Fe PE	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Guarany de Sobral	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sete de Setembro win, at 47.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.