Estadio Jesus Navas · Analysis updated 07:13 UTC
Sevilla Atletico vs Tenerife II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Sevilla Atletico and 1.35 for Tenerife II, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Sevilla Atletico the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sevilla Atletico win
53.1% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sevilla Atletico home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sevilla Atletico to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 22% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Sevilla Atletico and 1.35 for Tenerife II, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 64%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–19.3%
- 2–07.0%
- 1–06.9%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
Sevilla Atletico
- 2026-10-25T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Tenerife II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Antoniano · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mijas Las Lagunas · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Badajoz · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Central · 0-2 (L)
Tenerife II
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recreativo Huelva | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | Real Betis II | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | Ciudad de Lucena | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Badajoz | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Don Benito | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Sevilla Atletico | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Estepona | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Linares Deportivo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Puente Genil | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 11 | Sanluqueño | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 12 | Tenerife II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Xerez | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Atlético Central | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Marbella | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Tamaraceite | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Las Palmas II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
| 18 | Antoniano | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sevilla Atletico win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.