Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán · Referee J. Martinez · Analysis updated 20:40 UTC
Sevilla vs Barcelona Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.79 expected goals for Sevilla and 2.51 for Barcelona, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Barcelona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Barcelona win
74.8% probability
Expected goals
0.79 – 2.51
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sevilla home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Barcelona away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
25%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.6%
- 0–39.7%
- 0–19.3%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–37.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 49.9% vs market 41.0%, edge +8.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 41.0% | 49.9% | 2.00 | +8.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.07 | 89.3% | 90.4% | 1.11 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.25 | 74.6% | 74.8% | 1.34 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 6.00 | 15.5% | 15.6% | 6.41 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 9.50 | 9.8% | 9.7% | 10.31 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 3.75 | 25.5% | 25.3% | 3.95 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.12 | 85.3% | 84.5% | 1.18 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.60 | 59.0% | 50.1% | 2.00 | -8.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Sevilla
- 2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Espanyol · 1-1 (D)
Barcelona
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Levante · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-15T15:15:00.000Z · Sevilla 2-5 Barcelona (La Liga)
- 2025-10-05T14:15:00.000Z · Sevilla 4-1 Barcelona (La Liga)
- 2025-02-09T20:00:00.000Z · Sevilla 1-4 Barcelona (La Liga)
- 2024-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · Sevilla 1-5 Barcelona (La Liga)
- 2024-05-26T19:00:00.000Z · Sevilla 1-2 Barcelona (La Liga)
- 2023-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · Sevilla 0-1 Barcelona (La Liga)
- 2023-02-05T20:00:00.000Z · Sevilla 0-3 Barcelona (La Liga)
- 2022-09-03T19:00:00.000Z · Sevilla 0-3 Barcelona (La Liga)
- 2022-04-03T19:00:00.000Z · Sevilla 0-1 Barcelona (La Liga)
- 2021-12-21T20:30:00.000Z · Sevilla 1-1 Barcelona (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Barcelona win, at 74.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.