· Analysis updated 03:10 UTC
Sevilla vs Levante Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.02 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.61 for Levante, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Sevilla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sevilla win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
2.02 – 1.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sevilla home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Levante away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sevilla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 21% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.02 goals for Sevilla and 1.61 for Levante, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 1–18.6%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.9%
- 3–15.9%
Recent form
Sevilla
- 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Levante · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-0 (W)
Levante
- 2026-10-25T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 24 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Athletic Club | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 13 | Racing Santander | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Levante | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 9 |
| 17 | Getafe | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
| 18 | Espanyol | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 8 |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sevilla win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.