Estadio Jesús Navas · Referee Ylenia Sánchez Miguel · Analysis updated 18:50 UTC
Sevilla W vs Deportivo Alavés W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Sevilla W and 0.84 for Deportivo Alavés W, a combined total of 2.14. That distribution gives Sevilla W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sevilla W win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sevilla W home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Alavés W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sevilla W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 29% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Sevilla W and 0.84 for Deportivo Alavés W, a combined 2.14 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.4%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–011.8%
- 2–010.0%
- 0–19.9%
Recent form
Sevilla W
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo de La Coruña W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Espanyol W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Madrid CFF W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-02T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid W · 0-2 (L)
Deportivo Alavés W
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia W · 2-0 (W)
- 2023-05-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Alhama W · 1-1 (D)
- 2023-05-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis W · 1-1 (D)
- 2023-05-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Granad. Tenerife W · 1-1 (D)
- 2023-04-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia W · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División Femenina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 21 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 3 | Athletic Club W | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid W | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Madrid CFF W | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 13 |
| 6 | Eibar W | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Granad. Tenerife W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Granada | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 9 | Espanyol W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Edf Logrono W | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Real Sociedad W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | Sevilla W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | FC Levante Badalona W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Deportivo Alavés W | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Valencia W | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sevilla W win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.