· Analysis updated 13:32 UTC
SF Baumberg vs Schonnebeck Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.07 expected goals for SF Baumberg and 3.08 for Schonnebeck, a combined total of 5.16. That distribution gives Schonnebeck the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 2–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Schonnebeck win
58.4% probability
Expected goals
2.07 – 3.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Schonnebeck away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Schonnebeck to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 25% / 17% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.07 goals for SF Baumberg and 3.08 for Schonnebeck, a combined 5.16 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 88% and both teams to score at 83%, with 2–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–36.0%
- 2–25.9%
- 1–35.8%
- 1–25.7%
- 2–44.7%
Recent form
SF Baumberg
Schonnebeck
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Düsseldorf II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Holzheimer SG · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs SC St. Tönis · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs BW Dingden · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Büderich · 7-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Niederrhein table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schonnebeck | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | SSVg Velbert | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Fortuna Düsseldorf II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 17 |
| 4 | BW Dingden | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | SF Baumberg | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Solingen-Wald | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 7 | SC St. Tönis | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Germania Ratingen | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Viktoria Jüchen-Garz. | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | KFC Uerdingen 05 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 |
| 11 | Sonsbeck | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | Monheim | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Wuppertaler SV | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 |
| 14 | Scherpenberg | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 15 | SW Essen | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 6 |
| 16 | Büderich | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 6 |
| 17 | Holzheimer SG | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -21 | 4 |
| 18 | Meerbusch | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Schonnebeck win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.