SF Grei vs Asker Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for SF Grei and 3.90 for Asker, a combined total of 5.65. That distribution gives Asker the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Asker win

75.3% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 3.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SF Grei home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Asker away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Asker to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 13% / 12% / 75% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for SF Grei and 3.90 for Asker, a combined 5.65 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

SF Grei win13%

Draw12%

Asker win75%

Double chance 1X

25%

Double chance 12

88%

Double chance X2

87%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals96%

Over 2.5 goals90%

Over 3.5 goals80%

Both teams to score79%

Correct score

1–36.1%
1–45.9%
2–35.3%
2–45.2%
1–24.7%

Recent form

SF Grei

2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Heming · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Konnerud · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Carl Berner · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-01T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Nordstrand · 5-3 (W)
2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyn · 0-4 (L)

Asker

2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kvik Halden · 7-0 (W)
2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Heming · 5-2 (W)
2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vålerenga II · 5-4 (W)
2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Ready · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Carl Berner · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Asker	25	22	1	2	53	67
2	Heming	25	15	5	5	26	50
3	Gamle Oslo	25	14	3	8	27	45
4	IF Ready	25	12	6	7	15	42
5	Vålerenga II	24	13	1	10	-9	40
6	Bærum	25	12	3	10	20	39
7	Union Carl Berner	25	12	2	11	4	38
8	Frigg	25	9	6	10	-9	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	25	9	2	14	-24	29
10	KFUM II	24	8	4	12	-13	28
11	SF Grei	25	9	1	15	-25	28
12	Ullern	25	8	2	15	-13	26
13	Nordstrand	25	6	2	17	-24	20
14	Konnerud	25	5	2	18	-28	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Asker win, at 75.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.

It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.

A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.