Greibanen · Analysis updated 13:41 UTC
SF Grei vs Lyn Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for SF Grei and 2.14 for Lyn, a combined total of 3.62. That distribution gives Lyn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lyn win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 2.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SF Grei home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lyn away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lyn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 27% / 21% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for SF Grei and 2.14 for Lyn, a combined 3.62 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.1%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–36.5%
- 2–16.3%
Recent form
SF Grei
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Heming · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Konnerud · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Carl Berner · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-01T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Nordstrand · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyn · 0-4 (L)
Lyn
- 2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bryne · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ranheim · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gamle Oslo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs hodd · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Egersund · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lyn win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.