· Analysis updated 02:13 UTC
SF Grei vs Union Carl Berner Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for SF Grei and 2.15 for Union Carl Berner, a combined total of 3.87. That distribution gives Union Carl Berner the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Union Carl Berner win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
1.71 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SF Grei home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Union Carl Berner away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union Carl Berner to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 31% / 21% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for SF Grei and 2.15 for Union Carl Berner, a combined 3.87 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.3%
- 1–17.7%
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–36.0%
Recent form
SF Grei
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Heming · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Konnerud · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Carl Berner · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-01T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Nordstrand · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyn · 0-4 (L)
Union Carl Berner
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Frigg · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bærum · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordstrand · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SF Grei · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ullern · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asker | 25 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 53 | 67 |
| 2 | Heming | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 50 |
| 3 | Gamle Oslo | 25 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 45 |
| 4 | IF Ready | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 42 |
| 5 | Vålerenga II | 24 | 13 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 40 |
| 6 | Bærum | 25 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 39 |
| 7 | Union Carl Berner | 25 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 38 |
| 8 | Frigg | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | -9 | 33 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv Oslo | 25 | 9 | 2 | 14 | -24 | 29 |
| 10 | KFUM II | 24 | 8 | 4 | 12 | -13 | 28 |
| 11 | SF Grei | 25 | 9 | 1 | 15 | -25 | 28 |
| 12 | Ullern | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | -13 | 26 |
| 13 | Nordstrand | 25 | 6 | 2 | 17 | -24 | 20 |
| 14 | Konnerud | 25 | 5 | 2 | 18 | -28 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Union Carl Berner win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.