Spar Nord Arena – Høje Bøge · Analysis updated 07:06 UTC
SfB-Oure vs Tarup-Paarup Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for SfB-Oure and 1.05 for Tarup-Paarup, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives SfB-Oure the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SfB-Oure win
67.2% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SfB-Oure home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SfB-Oure to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 18% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for SfB-Oure and 1.05 for Tarup-Paarup, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 59%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.1%
- 1–18.0%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–07.6%
Recent form
SfB-Oure
- 2026-08-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Fredericia · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ringkøbing · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Silkeborg KFUM · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hedensted · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs OKS · 3-2 (W)
Tarup-Paarup
- 2026-08-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vejle · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hedensted · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-03-21T12:00:00.000Z · A vs OKS · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-03-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Marienlyst · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-03-08T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Esbjerg II · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SfB-Oure win, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.