· Analysis updated 10:00 UTC
Sfera U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Sfera U20 and 0.91 for Gremio Prudente U20, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Sfera U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.8% probability
Expected goals
1.19 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gremio Prudente U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sfera U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 30% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.19 goals for Sfera U20 and 0.91 for Gremio Prudente U20, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 42%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.5%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.2%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–08.7%
Recent form
Sfera U20
Gremio Prudente U20
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarani U20 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Porto Football U20 · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sfera U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Osasco Audax U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino U20 · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.