· Analysis updated 15:55 UTC
Sfera U20 vs Ituano U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Sfera U20 and 1.39 for Ituano U20, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Ituano U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.39
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ituano U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ituano U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 32% / 26% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.19 goals for Sfera U20 and 1.39 for Ituano U20, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Sfera U20
Ituano U20
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo SP U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sfera U20 · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Guarani U20 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.