· Analysis updated 16:27 UTC
Sfera U20 vs Osasco Audax U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for Sfera U20 and 0.88 for Osasco Audax U20, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Sfera U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sfera U20 win
69.8% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Osasco Audax U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sfera U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 18% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.33 goals for Sfera U20 and 0.88 for Osasco Audax U20, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 53%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.5%
- 3–08.5%
- 1–18.3%
Recent form
Sfera U20
Osasco Audax U20
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo SP U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo SP U20 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs XV de Jaú U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gremio Prudente U20 · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sfera U20 win, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.