· Analysis updated 07:07 UTC
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 2.33 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 4.33. That distribution gives SV Darmstadt 98 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SV Darmstadt 98 win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 2.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SV Darmstadt 98 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 34% / 20% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 2.33 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined 4.33 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.2%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.2%
- 2–16.2%
- 1–35.5%
Recent form
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Wehen · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Preußen Münster · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Viktoria Köln · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Waldhof Mannheim · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 1-1 (D)
SV Darmstadt 98
- 2026-09-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs San Antonio · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs VfL Wolfsburg · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Arminia Bielefeld · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T10:00:00.000Z · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2-7 SV Darmstadt 98 (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SV Darmstadt 98 win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.