WIRmachenDRUCK Arena · Referee F. Grund · Analysis updated 21:34 UTC
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Verl Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 1.08 for Verl, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Verl away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 27% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 1.08 for Verl, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.7%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–08.3%
Recent form
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Saarbrücken · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Verl · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Havelse · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 0-2 (L)
Verl
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger Kickers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Meppen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Waldhof Mannheim · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Köln · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 21 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 15 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Hansa Rostock | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | FC Saarbrücken | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Waldhof Mannheim | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Hoffenheim II | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Alemannia Aachen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Fortuna Köln | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Verl | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| 14 | Stuttgart II | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | SV Wehen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 18 | Würzburger Kickers | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 19 | SV Meppen | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 20 | Havelse | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.