· Analysis updated 06:51 UTC
SG-Tertre-Hautrage vs Aywaille Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for SG-Tertre-Hautrage and 0.62 for Aywaille, a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives SG-Tertre-Hautrage the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SG-Tertre-Hautrage win
79.6% probability
Expected goals
2.58 – 0.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SG-Tertre-Hautrage home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aywaille away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SG-Tertre-Hautrage to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 14% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.58 goals for SG-Tertre-Hautrage and 0.62 for Aywaille, a combined 3.19 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.6%
- 3–011.7%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–18.4%
- 4–07.5%
Recent form
SG-Tertre-Hautrage
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stockay-Warfusée · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Stade Verviers · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Huy · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Richelle United · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ganshoren · 1-2 (L)
Aywaille
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Eupen II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SG-Tertre-Hautrage · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crossing Schaerbeek · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Ostiches · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Eupen · 0-8 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Amateur Division - ACFF table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jette | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | SG-Tertre-Hautrage | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | Stade Mouscronnois | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Crossing Schaerbeek | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Braine | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | AS Eupen II | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Huy | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Ganshoren | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 9 | La Calamine | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | RUS Binche | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Stade Verviers | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 12 | Acren-Lessines | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 13 | Ostiches | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Richelle United | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Stockay-Warfusée | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Entité Manageoise | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | Union Namur | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 5 |
| 18 | Aywaille | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SG-Tertre-Hautrage win, at 79.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.