Sportpark de Pluimen · Analysis updated 10:52 UTC
SG-Tertre-Hautrage vs Diksmuide Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for SG-Tertre-Hautrage and 1.37 for Diksmuide, a combined total of 3.27. That distribution gives SG-Tertre-Hautrage the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SG-Tertre-Hautrage win
50.0% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SG-Tertre-Hautrage home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Diksmuide away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SG-Tertre-Hautrage to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 22% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for SG-Tertre-Hautrage and 1.37 for Diksmuide, a combined 3.27 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–06.8%
- 1–26.8%
Recent form
SG-Tertre-Hautrage
- 2026-10-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Braine · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stockay-Warfusée · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Stade Verviers · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Huy · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Richelle United · 0-4 (L)
Diksmuide
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Londerzeel · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Oostkamp · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Mechelen II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Voorde Appelterre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lommel United · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SG-Tertre-Hautrage win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.