· Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
SG-Tertre-Hautrage vs Ganshoren Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for SG-Tertre-Hautrage and 1.88 for Ganshoren, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives SG-Tertre-Hautrage the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
60.8% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SG-Tertre-Hautrage home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ganshoren away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SG-Tertre-Hautrage to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 22% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for SG-Tertre-Hautrage and 1.88 for Ganshoren, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.3%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–17.8%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–34.8%
Recent form
SG-Tertre-Hautrage
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Stade Verviers · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Huy · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Richelle United · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ganshoren · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Entité Manageoise · 1-1 (D)
Ganshoren
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs RUS Binche · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Eupen II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SG-Tertre-Hautrage · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crossing Schaerbeek · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Ostiches · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Amateur Division - ACFF table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crossing Schaerbeek | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 2 | SG-Tertre-Hautrage | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Jette | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Stade Mouscronnois | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Braine | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Ganshoren | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | AS Eupen II | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | RUS Binche | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Stade Verviers | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 10 | Richelle United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 11 | Huy | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Acren-Lessines | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 13 | La Calamine | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 14 | Ostiches | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Stockay-Warfusée | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Entité Manageoise | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 17 | Union Namur | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Aywaille | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.